Friday, November 30, 2012
Very uneventful day. The market was completely listless today oscillating in a 6 point trading range. In the short term the up side looks more vulnerable even though we maintained above 1410. There is no conviction in the market so I am still yellow on the market and currently in cash 100%. Long term metrics are improving but still skeptical since the overall weight of the long term market technicals are still slightly bearish. Perfect time to stay on the fence until we figure this out...
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Good move for the bulls with a close above 1410. We retested later in the day and finished at 1415. Expect a retest tomorrow and will need it to hold to become bullish. One cause for concern is momentum is slowing down to the upside. Need another close above 1410 to feel secure about going long. Long term charts are still a little weak so still concerned about a prolonged move.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Strong day for the bulls. After fending off an early assault by the bears which saw the S&P 500 down 12 to 1385, the market rallied back to 1409 closing at the high of the day. Short term we are still a little overbought and the long term outlook has turned neutral we will probably try to rally beyond 1410 tomorrow. I am still yellow because we finished again in the 1400-1410 range. Still looking for conviction north of 1410 or south of 1400 to get me off the fence. The bears had their shot today, let's see what the bulls can do tomorrow. If we push through 1410 convincingly, 1430 is the target.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Seesaw day for the market with the averages between the trading range of 1400-1410 for most of the day. Will need to see some follow through by the bears tomorrow and push a little lower below the close of 1398 to be convincing that we are headed south again. The move early tomorrow may set the stage for the day and subsequently the next couple of weeks. If we close below 1400 I will probably move my market indicator to red with a target of 1375. My investments will stay yellow unless we get a strong move down.
Monday, November 26, 2012
So I am officially yellow on the market right now. I am use to getting conflicting messages and making decisions but with today's market I do not mind being in cash. With a retest of 1400 twice and the market moving higher toward the end of the day, I would normally be bullish if the larger market was not in a different pattern. The short term has us overbought, the long term technicals still hinting lower and the bond market actually moved up in price (down in yield) which all says bearish. Technically we are above the psychological 1400 but below the 1410 level that acted as support in early November. If we move with determination one way or the other tomorrow I will favor that side of the market. Should be interesting