Saturday, December 8, 2012
I found this article on stock market participation while perusing CNBC's website. It is a pretty good summation on how sentiment of investors is not necessarily tied to the performance of the market. It is a good example of how people have a hard time managing the emotional aspects of their investing...
Friday, December 7, 2012
OK so this is not what I expected. We got a decent jobs report today. There were a few issues but overall better than what a lot of people expected. But the market really did not move too much. Normally with the daily chart pattern I would be green-green on the market and investments, but the overlying issue of a possible weekly head and shoulder pattern is causing a lot of reservations. The pattern will complete itself if we cannot get above 1425ish and begin to head down. I would feel better about the market if we get above 1430, which is a big resistance level. I would be very bullish at that point. For those who are interested in the pattern, its initial shoulder is mid march-april highs with the head forming in late sept-early october. If we cannot make it past the previous shoulder (march-april) pricing then things look pretty ugly. Normally I would be bullish but this pattern is just too strong with a number of enforcing elements suggesting that it might happen. I am cautiously optimistic, but not willing to risk capital for a small upswing followed by a major downturn. This makes next weeks trading very important.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
So we ticked up a little toward the close to finish up 4 to just shy of 1414. Tomorrow morning's jobs report might just be the catalyst to get this thing moving. Expectations are low since it will factor in Sandy' effect on the market. Technicals have not changed.
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
The market is beginning to get restless. After a decent attempt to push lower below 1400, the market rallied to 1415 before finishing the day at 1409. Apple was the big mover today down over 6% for the day, making the Nasdaq the big loser of the day. Overall still the same sentiment with a slowly eroding short term momentum and incremental improvement to the long term. Still anybody's game. The market is winding itself to move impressively, whenever that may be.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
More of the same... a weak attempt at 1400 combined with a failed late effort on 1410 leaves us in the exact same spot. Short term momentum is weakening and long term is strengthening although still inside bearish territory. Although it typically is bad practice to try and guess the move of the market (it's best to let the market move and then react) we may be forming a head and shoulders pattern with a very small right shoulder. Like everything else, let the market move one direction or another and then I'll get out of cash.
Monday, December 3, 2012
Nice try by the bulls early. The market rallied at the start, got to 1422 and then gave it all back. The market finished lower closing at 1409, which puts it back in the 1400-1410 convergence zone. Still a little top heavy short term but I would not expect anything convincing. We probably retest 1400 since the bulls have run out of steam. The move from here (once it happens) will probably be significant. Long term the bulls are getting a little stronger but still the market is on the bearish side of strength. Happy in cash.