Friday, December 7, 2012

S&P 500 close 12/7

OK so this is not what I expected. We got a decent jobs report today. There were a few issues but overall better than what a lot of people expected. But the market really did not move too much. Normally with the daily chart pattern I would be green-green on the market and investments, but the overlying issue of a possible weekly head and shoulder pattern is causing a lot of reservations. The pattern will complete itself if we cannot get above 1425ish and begin to head down. I would feel better about the market if we get above 1430, which is a big resistance level. I would be very bullish at that point. For those who are interested in the pattern, its initial shoulder is mid march-april highs with the head forming in late sept-early october. If we cannot make it past the previous shoulder (march-april) pricing then things look pretty ugly. Normally I would be bullish but this pattern is just too strong with a number of enforcing elements suggesting that it might happen. I am cautiously optimistic, but not willing to risk capital for a small upswing followed by a major downturn. This makes next weeks trading very important.

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